题目：Extubation Decisions with Predictive Information for Mechanically Ventilated Patients in ICU

 主讲人： 郑智超

 主持人：曹彬

时间：2024年1月8号15：00

地点：管理学院315室

主讲内容

Weaning patients from mechanical ventilators is a crucial decision in intensive care units (ICUs), significantly affecting patient outcomes and the throughput of ICUs. This study aims to improve the current extubation protocols by incorporating predictive information on patient health conditions. We develop a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process with predictions of future state to support extubation decisions. We characterize the structure of the optimal policy and provide important insights into how predictive information can lead to different decision protocols. We demonstrate that adding predictive information is always beneficial, even if physicians place excessive trust in the predictions, as long as the predictive model is moderately accurate. Using a comprehensive dataset from an ICU in a tertiary hospital in Singapore, we evaluate the effectiveness of various policies and demonstrate that incorporating predictive information can reduce ICU length of stay by up to 3.4% and, simultaneously, decrease the extubation failure rate by up to 20.3%, compared to the optimal policy that does not utilize prediction. These benefits are more significant for patients with poor initial conditions upon ICU admission. Both our analytical and numerical findings suggest that predictive information is particularly valuable in identifying patients who could benefit from continued intubation, thereby allowing for personalized and delayed extubation for these patients.

主讲人介绍：

Zhichao Zheng is an Associate Professor of Operations Management at the Singapore Management University. Specializing in data analytics and optimization, his research primarily focuses on healthcare operations management and clinical decision-making. He also extends his research to sharing economics and supply chain risk management. His work is published in leading operations management journals such as Operations Research, Management Science, and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, and INFORMS Journal of Applied Analytics. In addition, he also publishes in various medical journals. He has held the position of guest Associate Editor for Management Science and served as an Associate Editor for Service Science as well as the Journal of Management Science and Engineering. He has also contributed as a judge in a range of paper competitions, with a particular focus on healthcare research. He has successfully secured substantial funding for his research projects, receiving over 800,000 SGD in support from the Ministry of Education in Singapore. He offers courses in Management Science, Service and Operations Analytics, Data Analytics in Healthcare, and Business Analytics to undergraduate, master's, and MBA students. He received a Bachelor of Science with First Class Honors in Applied Mathematics from the Department of Mathematics at the National University of Singapore (NUS) in 2009 and obtained his Ph.D. in Management from the Department of Decision Sciences (renamed to the Department of Analytics & Operations) at NUS in 2013.

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